• Trump touts ‘productive’ talks with unnamed Iranian leader
• Tehran denies any direct contact; global powers react cautiously
• Israel vows to continue strikes in Iran and Lebanon
• US Marines deploy to region as USS Gerald R. Ford pulls back for repairs
WASHINGTON: As the Iran war enters its fourth week, the conflict appears to be unfolding far beyond the battlefield — spilling into global markets, energy prices and political messaging.
On Monday, US President Donald Trump sent shockwaves through financial markets by announcing a five-day delay in planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, citing “productive” discussions with Tehran.
The impact was immediate: US stocks surged by an estimated $1.7 trillion, while oil prices plunged nearly 15 per cent. But the rally proved short-lived. Within minutes, Iranian officials dismissed the claim as false, accusing Washington of attempting to manipulate markets — triggering a sharp reversal in gains.
Analysts described the rapid swings as emblematic of a war now influencing not just geopolitics but also global finance in real time.
In a series of posts, Trump claimed “very good and productive conversations” aimed at resolving hostilities in the Middle East. However, his tone later hardened, warning that if diplomacy failed, military strikes would intensify.
He also insisted Iran had initiated contact and suggested progress had been made on key issues, including uranium enrichment — though he declined to identify his alleged interlocutors.
Tehran rejects claims
Iran swiftly pushed back, denying any direct negotiations with Washington.
“There are no talks,” the foreign ministry said, calling Trump’s statements an effort to bring down energy prices. Officials acknowledged receiving messages via third-party countries but maintained no formal discussions had taken place.
Reports suggesting contact with parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf were also denied, with the Iranian leadership accusing the US of trying to influence financial and oil markets while navigating a difficult military situation.
Observers remained sceptical. Middle East expert Vali Nasr suggested the claims could be a tactic to buy time rather than evidence of real diplomacy.
Global reaction cautious
Confusion over the existence of talks extended to world capitals.
Russia said it was monitoring “contradictory statements” and expressed hope for a peaceful resolution, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed reports of dialogue, noting London was aware of possible backchannel communication.
At the same time, Britain announced the deployment of air defence systems to Gulf allies amid ongoing missile threats.
Military buildup continues
Despite talk of de-escalation, military activity in the region shows no sign of slowing.
Thousands of US Marines are being deployed to the Middle East, fuelling speculation about potential ground operations, including securing Iranian oil assets or reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, the USS Gerald R. Ford — the world’s largest aircraft carrier — has withdrawn to Crete following technical issues, including a fire onboard earlier this month.
Israel, for its part, has signalled no intention of scaling back. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed ongoing operations against Iran and Lebanon, citing recent strikes that reportedly killed additional Iranian nuclear scientists.
While he acknowledged the possibility of a diplomatic resolution supported by Washington, Netanyahu stressed that Israel would continue acting to protect its strategic interests regardless of any negotiations.
A war beyond the battlefield
With conflicting narratives, shifting market reactions and continued military escalation, the situation underscores how modern warfare increasingly plays out across financial systems and information channels — leaving the line between diplomacy and market strategy blurred.