ISLAMABAD: Growing instability in the Middle East has sparked concerns in Pakistan over the potential shortage of essential medicines, at a time when healthcare costs are already straining household budgets.
Amid circulating rumours about possible shortages of life-saving drugs, authorities have also warned that such uncertainty could be exploited by black marketeers seeking to hoard and sell medicines at inflated prices.
Pharmaceutical manufacturers, meanwhile, anticipate an increase in production costs if the crisis persists, citing rising energy prices and the likelihood of further depreciation of the Pakistani rupee.
The Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (Drap), however, has downplayed fears of an immediate crisis. Officials say the country currently holds sufficient medicine stocks for up to three months and that alternative supply routes are being explored to maintain the flow of raw materials.
Pakistan relies heavily on imported Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), many of which transit through Gulf countries. Ongoing regional tensions could disrupt these supply chains, raising the risk of future shortages.
A health ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted that many local manufacturers maintain limited inventories due to financial constraints, making them vulnerable to sudden disruptions in global supply lines.
He added that freight and insurance costs for shipments عبر Gulf routes have already increased due to rising fuel prices and security concerns, prompting close coordination between the government, Drap, and the pharmaceutical sector to monitor stock levels and ensure continued availability of essential medicines.
Medical experts have also raised alarms. Consultant gastroenterologist Dr Talal Khurshid stressed that uninterrupted access to medicines is critical, especially for patients with chronic conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, and liver disease.
He warned that even short-term disruptions could lead to serious health complications, including uncontrolled blood sugar, increased risk of heart attacks and strokes, and worsening conditions for patients with liver disease.
The Pakistan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association (PPMA) said the industry currently does not foresee immediate shortages, as raw materials are available for the next three months. It added that collaboration with Drap is underway to establish alternative supply chains and prevent disruptions.
Similarly, the Pharma Bureau said there is no shortage of essential medicines at present, urging the public not to be misled by rumours. Officials emphasised that the industry maintained steady supplies even during the Covid-19 pandemic and remains committed to ensuring availability.
Drap CEO Dr Obaidullah Malik said a detailed assessment shows that leading pharmaceutical manufacturers have adequate stock for three months, including both finished products and raw materials, placing the country in a “safe zone” for now.
He noted that while many APIs are imported from China, around 15 per cent pass through Gulf transit routes. Medicines for rare diseases are sourced from countries including the UAE, Singapore, and Türkiye.
Dr Malik also confirmed that vaccine stocks are sufficient for at least two months, adding that alternative supply routes outside the Gulf remain operational.
To address public concerns, Drap has introduced a QR code system on its website, allowing patients—particularly those requiring medicines for rare diseases—to report shortages and receive assistance.
Rare diseases, often involving genetic disorders, cancers, or immune conditions, affect a small portion of the population and are typically not catered to by local manufacturers due to limited demand, making imports essential for treatment.