ISLAMABAD: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation headed by Iva Petrova is scheduled to visit Pakistan on February 26 to conduct a review of the country’s $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the $1.1bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), officials confirmed.
The nearly two-week mission, set to conclude on March 11, will carry added importance as discussions will extend beyond programme performance to include preliminary talks on the 2026-27 federal budget. Key areas of focus will include fiscal performance during the current year and the broader framework for next year’s budget, particularly provincial finances.
Performance under the programme through end-December 2025 — the review period — has largely remained on track, though revenue collection has fallen short of targets. Authorities expect the gap to narrow following a recent super tax ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court in favour of the government.
The power sector is also expected to come under scrutiny due to recent policy fluctuations affecting industries and residential fixed charges, even though circular debt levels remain within agreed limits.
Officials say Pakistan has met most of the quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) for end-December 2025. However, some indicative targets and structural benchmarks are lagging, which may pose challenges for future implementation.
As part of the biannual review of the EFF and RSF arrangements, both sides will assess past performance and agree on a forward strategy. Successful completion of the review would unlock about $1 billion (approximately 760 million Special Drawing Rights) under the EFF and an additional $200 million under the RSF by late April.
Research firm Topline Research expects Pakistan to meet nearly all seven QPCs, though data for one indicator — the floor on targeted cash transfers — remains unclear. The firm noted that the target was missed by Rs1bn in the previous review, but the shortfall was largely technical, stemming from reduced administrative expenses rather than lower beneficiary payments.
Topline estimated that net international reserves may fall slightly short of benchmarks, standing at around $6.7bn against the $7bn target for September 2025, and below $6bn compared to the $6.5bn goal for December 2025.
Net domestic assets (NDA) of the State Bank of Pakistan are projected to remain between Rs12.5 trillion and Rs13.5tr, comfortably within the ceiling of Rs14.9-15.1tr for the review period.
According to central bank data cited by the firm, foreign currency swaps amounted to $2.2bn in September 2025 and $1.86bn in December 2025, both within the prescribed limits. Primary surplus figures are estimated at Rs3.5tr and Rs4.1tr for September and December, respectively, exceeding the set targets.
The firm added that government guarantees and cash transfer spending floors are likely to meet programme conditions, while new tax return targets are also expected to be achieved.
However, it pointed out that the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) missed its indicative target by Rs336bn. While some of this gap may be bridged through the super tax ruling, collections are still projected to remain below the annual goal.